Brussels Playbook: Qatar scandal hits Commission — Finland’s next PM? — VdL in Washington

PSA: Today’s Belgian national strike means loads of disruptions to travel, child care, schools, health care and pretty much everything else (details below). Allow extra time.

GOOD MORNING. This is Nick Vinocur, your captain speaking. Today’s Playbook Airways flight will take us over Brussels, where a Qatar-shaped storm pattern is forming over the Berlaymont; and to Helsinki, where Finland’s possible next prime minister is warming up for the role of a lifetime (hint: it’s not star politician Sanna Marin). Buckle up and enjoy the ride.

DRIVING THE DAY: QATARGATE HITS THE COMMISSION 

QATAR FLIGHTS SCANDAL PUTS SPOTLIGHT ON BERLAYMONT: Amid all the sound and fury of Qatargate, officials at the EU’s other big institutions, the Commission and Council, have been able to put their hands on their hearts and say — shocking stuff, but it’s the Parliament’s problem. Until now.

Mud spatter: With POLITICO’s revelation that Henrik Hololei, the Estonian in charge of the Commission’s transport department, had accepted a number of business-class trips aboard Qatar Airways while negotiating a major visa deal with Doha, the scandal has splashed up onto the Berlaymont’s glass-and-steel exterior, spreading the stink.

Tweaking around the edges: The EU executive rushed out changes to procedures that had allowed Hololei to self-approve his travel. But far from drawing a line under the crisis, the move fueled calls for a tougher response — including that Hololei, who’s previously been called out for not disclosing meetings with lobbyists, should step back from his role pending a full investigation of his dealings with third parties.

Credibility gap: “We’re now in a very critical situation regarding our credibility,” said Cristiano Sebastiani, the head of the R&D trade union which represents EU civil servants. “Every week there is something new. We are very worried about the impact on the 2024 elections.”

Calling BS: For Alberto Alemanno, professor of EU law at HEC business school, the Commission’s claim that Hololei didn’t break rules doesn’t hold water. “The self-approval in itself is a breach,” he said.

Now’s the time: Instead of arguing that Hololei was technically allowed to self-approve his travel, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen should “seize this opportunity to announce that there is an internal investigation that will lead to sanctions,” said Alemanno, whose complaints about ex-Commission President José Manuel Barroso’s post-EU switch to Goldman Sachs helped usher in changes to the Commission’s lobbying rules.

Low profile: The problem for some critics is that while the EU tweaks its rulebook, it rarely imposes sanctions. On Thursday morning, Hololei attended a gathering of DGs — and kept silent as new travel rules were read out at the start of the session. 

Will this time be different? The pressure on von der Leyen’s office could hardly be higher in the wake of the Qatargate scandal. According to Sebastiani, the Commission needs to prove it can “lead by example,” rather than being strictly reactive on matters of ethics. Von der Leyen herself has pledged to crack down on corruption, including by backing an ethics body with the power to investigate misdeeds across the EU institutions.

Now comes the hard part: Enforcement. Unlike with Qatargate, the Belgian police aren’t going to sweep in to arrest anyone. It’s up to the Commission to draw a line on what is and isn’t acceptable in its halls.

NOW READ THIS: Laura Codruța Kövesi, the head of the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, is tasked with rooting out crimes that involve EU funds. Now, she has her sights set on Brussels — and she wants more money, more staff and more cooperation from EU institutions, report Carlo Martuscelli and Paola Tamma.

PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW 

COULD THIS MAN BE FINLAND’S NEXT PM? Finland may have a star prime minister in Sanna Marin, but as my colleague Charlie Duxbury reported, there’s no guarantee she’ll remain in her job. Her Social Democrats are trailing a rival center-right group in the polls with less than a month to go until the April 2 vote.

Enter Petteri Orpo. If the polls are any indication, the blunt-spoken former finance minister could be Finland’s next PM, in charge of steering Helsinki’s accession to NATO, its support for Ukraine (he wants to send more arms) and managing a potentially complex coalition arrangement.

Taking aim: Speaking to Playbook from Helsinki, where he huddled with EU conservative bigwigs, Orpo took aim at Marin’s record on the economy and made a pitch to increase, not lessen, immigration to his country.

Debt bomb: Marin “has done quite good work in foreign policy and security, but things in Finland are not good. We have huge issues with our debt,” Orpo said. (Finland’s national debt stood at 66.19 percent in 2021, according to Statista.) 

Tough love: To bolster growth and lower debt, Orpo plans to give Finland’s economy the equivalent of a dry birch branch whipping. “We want to reform the labor market, taxation and social security, and get tens of thousands of workers from other countries to Finland, as we have a lack of workers,” he said.

Between a rock and a socialist: That last point might interest his potential coalition partner, the True Finns. While Orpo’s National Coalition Party is on course to win the election, it wouldn’t be able to rule alone. His choice of coalition partner is between the hard-right True Finns, who want to see Finland leave the EU, and the Social Democrats.

Orpo didn’t express a preference. He said the Social Democrats had become “very far left” under Marin, and that there were problems with the True Finns, “including this question on foreign workers.” But he said it “would not be impossible” to build a government with them. (Orpo’s coalition previously ruled with the True Finns, but they left the government after the immigration question “proved too much for them,” he said.)

New NATO member, who dis? If elected, Orpo could find himself at the helm of a NATO member country, even though Turkey is continuing to block both Helsinki and Stockholm’s accession bid. An immediate priority, Orpo said, would be to ramp up weapons deliveries to Ukraine. “I am ready and Finland is ready to send more, as much as needed,” he said.

Backing for EU arms buying: The ex-minister — who for years labored in the shadows of Alexander Stubb, his more outspoken ex-boss — called on the EU to use its budget to buy weapons and ammunition for Ukraine. “This would give a clear message to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin that we are committed.”

Waaaaay back when … As for NATO membership, Orpo said he had been calling for it since 2006. Marin’s party “was against NATO for decades, but they changed their minds,” he said.

VDL MEETS BIDEN

CHINA ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM IN VDL-BIDEN MEETING TODAY: Ursula von der Leyen and U.S. President Joe Biden are set to announce an upcoming deal to alleviate the tensions between Brussels and Washington on America’s green subsidy splurge, which has been occupying Brussels for months.

What’s in the deal: European officials are making progress toward securing an agreement on EU access to the made-in-America subsidies program created under the Inflation Reduction Act. The two sides are hashing out a special exemption that would give EU companies the same access to the incentives the U.S. is offering free-trade partners like Canada and Mexico. Although a final agreement is not expected today — with any changes possibly needing a presidential executive order — this would be a major win for Brussels, which has been pushing Washington for months on the issue.

Quid pro quo? If you haven’t noticed, the EU has taken a number of measures in recent months that might please China hawks in Washington: from banning TikTok on EU officials’ phones to imposing export controls on chip manufacturing equipment and having Germany agree to ban Huawei.

Nothing comes for free: In exchange, the EU is set to announce later this month the idea of a critical raw materials “club” — a group of like-minded countries who would get together to combat China’s dominance in the field. Europe in particular has a dearth of raw minerals such as lithium and cobalt — crucial materials that are components in everything from car batteries to solar panels. 

Elephant? Which elephant? China will be at the heart of the discussions today, both on the trade front as on the Ukraine discussions, as U.S. officials have been offering Europe both urgent warnings about Beijing. Read more in our story here. They will meet at 8 p.m. CET, after which von der Leyen will do a press point.

SPEAKING OF CHINA — BRUSSELS SEEKS TO CLOSE RANKS ON CHIPS EXPORTS: EU trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis on Thursday pitched a more unified approach to impose export controls on sensitive technology, in the wake of a bombshell Dutch decision to stop advanced microchips printing machines being sold to China. “We are ready to work with member states to develop an EU approach on export controls,” Dombrovskis told reporters ahead of the EU trade ministers’ meeting in Stockholm, Sarah Anne Aarup and Pieter Haeck report. Read their story here (for Pro subscribers).

AUTO CLUB

POLAND JOINS GERMANY’S ENGINE AXIS SUMMIT: Europe’s pro-engine coalition has a new member: Poland. Along with Berlin and Rome, Warsaw wants to stave off a total ban on combustion engines by carving out a role for artificial e-fuels, my colleague Hanne Cokelaere writes in to report. 

Battle royale: The Czech Republic’s Martin Kupka is hosting the summit, which will aim to hash out a joint position on EU vehicle emissions legislation amid a major political row between Berlin and Brussels over the centerpiece of the European Commission’s Fit for 55 package of green laws. 

Now read this: For all you need to know about e-fuels, Germans’ obsession with them and the politics of Berlin’s push to save the engine, Josh Posaner has the full FAQ.

Path to a deal: Germany’s Finance Minister Christian Lindner, a big fan of precision-made sports cars running on e-fuels, tweeted late Thursday that he’d spoken to his Italian counterpart on the issue, and both governments were still ready to block the 2035 law. “It was always clear to us that passenger cars would need to be climate neutral in the end, and 2035 is a good date for that,” Lindner said, adding the decision on what replaces petrol and diesel “should not be a political” one. He wants a clear commitment from the Commission that electric vehicles aren’t the only way ahead.

SPEAKING OF POLAND AND GERMANY: German-bashing remains a hallmark of Poland’s governing Law and Justice party, but if Europe is to succeed in beating Russia, Warsaw and Berlin must work together, writes Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven, a former German ambassador to Poland, in this opinion piece for POLITICO.

IN OTHER NEWS

HAMBURG ATTACK: Multiple people were killed and others seriously injured in a shooting at a Jehovah’s Witness hall Thursday night in Hamburg, according to police. Latest here.

MACRON-SUNAK MEETING TODAY: Rishi Sunak and Emmanuel Macron will discuss combining British and French military resources in the Indo-Pacific region when they meet for a summit in Paris today. Cristina Gallardo has the details.

PORTUGAL JOINS COMMISSION LAWSUIT AGAINST HUNGARY: Lisbon has decided to join the European Commission’s lawsuit against Hungary’s anti-LGBT+ law, my Playbook colleague Jakob Hanke Vela writes in to report. Playbook reported last month that only few countries were backing the Commission, despite the fact many EU leaders signed a letter complaining about Hungary’s law back when it was put forward. The lawsuit is groundbreaking in itself, according to lawyers, because the Commission is basing part of it on the fundamental rights articles of the Lisbon Treaty (rather than economic single market arguments which it is usually more comfortable with).

Now hear this: Balázs Orbán, political director to the Hungarian prime minister, is the guest on this week’s EU Confidential podcast.

ROAD TO TURKISH ELECTION: Last month’s earthquake is turning up the heat on President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who faces an election on May 14 — but backing among his core supporters remains robust, reports Elçin Poyrazlar.

BATTLE FOR BAKHMUT: Jamie Dettmer explains why Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has no choice but to ask his fighters to hold Bakhmut for now.

Human cost of the war: BILD has spoken with the mother of the unarmed Ukrainian soldier shot dead by Russian forcesafter saying “slava Ukraini.” She describes the night she saw the video of her son’s execution. Preview of the video here.

LATVIAN SOLUTIONS: Latvia began confiscating cars from some drunk drivers this year, and is now sending them to Ukraine to help with the war effort, Reuters reports.

XI RUBBER-STAMPED: Xi Jinping was officially awarded a third five-year term as Chinese president overnight.

INTERESTING PROFILE: Karl Mathiesen has this profile of Johan Vollenbroek — the 73-year-old chemist who, through hundreds of lawsuits, has forced the Netherlands’ agriculture industry into a reckoning with its pollution. The issue is set to explode again, with protests due in The Hague on Saturday.

FRIDAY FEATURES: Move over Trump, Johnson and Fabricant — there’s a new terrible haircut in town, writes Paul Dallison in his latest Declassified humor column. Meanwhile, over on our Westminster Insider podcast, Theresa May’s all-powerful former chief of staff Fiona Hill reveals her despair at being fired from Downing Street in 2017.

AGENDA        

— Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in the U.S.; meets President Joe Biden at 8 p.m.

— Informal meeting of foreign affairs/trade ministers in Stockholm; doorsteps at 8:30 a.m.; press conference at 3:15 p.m. Watch.

— Justice and Home Affairs Council (justice) at 10 a.m.; press conference at 5:15 p.m. Watch.

— Council President Charles Michel meets Council of Europe Secretary-General Marija Pejčinović Burić at 3 p.m.

— EU Maritime Security Strategy to be adopted.

— German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde.

— EC press point by Commissioner Ylva Johansson and the Minister for Internal Affairs of Moldova Ana Revenco, ahead of meeting of EU Support Hub for Internal Security and Border Management in Moldova at 9:30 a.m. Watch.

— Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič in Oslo; meets with Minister of Petroleum and Energy Jan Christian Vestre.

— Commissioner Stella Kyriakides in Nicosia, Cyprus; meets President Nikos Christodoulides and ministers.

— French President Emmanuel Macron meets British PM Rishi Sunak in Paris.

BRUSSELS CORNER        

GOULARD CASE DROPPED: A French judge dropped a case Thursday against former French minister and ex-MEP Sylvie Goulard involving misuse of public funds. Details here.

WOMEN’S DAY FAIL: The European Parliament removed a video it posted online to mark International Women’s Day Wednesday that contained images of an anti-abortion rally. For a few seconds, the video showed an image of a protest in Croatia featuring a man holding a placard with the slogan: “Nine weeks from conception, it already sucks its thumb.” Directly overlaid on the footage of the pro-life rally was the phrase: “And this European Parliament is fighting hard for women’s rights.” Green Finnish MEP Alviina Alametsä wrote to POLITICO: “I am actually shocked.” Read Eddy Wax’s full account here.

NATIONAL STRIKE DAY: Lots of disruptions on the transport network, as well as other services. STIB will be posting live updates from 6 a.m. 
on Facebook, Twitter and its webpage …  SNCB has info for domestic and international travel … De Lijn has updates on bus and tram travel via its webpage, Twitter and Facebook … and TEC has updates here.

Additional info: Schools, day care, post offices, hospitals and prisons may also be affected, and federal, regional and local administrations are expected to be closed. Plus, be extra careful with flammables — the firefighters’ strike will last until Saturday, according to RTBF.

And that’s not all: Many Delhaizes around the country are closed following the company’s announcement that it would be turning its stores into franchises, reports BRUZZ. Delhaize is offering free grocery deliveries for the next two weeks to compensate.

IF ALL THAT INDUSTRIAL ACTION GETS YOU DOWN, GET YOUR LAUGHS HERE: Brussels’ favorite EU comedy show, The Schuman Show, is back on March 30 and 31. And if you missed the sold-out February show, you can watch it here.

WHAT’S ON THIS WEEKEND …

Watch a move at the “À Film Ouverts” festival, running till March 26.

See a giant cat sculpture in the Royal Park from today until the end of June. Info here, audioguide here.

Listen to classical music at the Klara Festival.

Get cultured at the Festival des Mots à Défendre at the Brussels National Theater.

BIRTHDAYS: MEPs Özlem Demirel and Benoît Lutgen; Former MEP Pervenche Berès and Anna Maria Corazza Bildt; POLITICO’s Sonia Romano; Former Canadian Prime Minister Kim Campbell; Britain’s Prince Edward.

CELEBRATING SATURDAY: MEPs Edina Tóth, Massimiliano Salini and Marc Tarabella; Former MEPs József Nagy, Andrejs Mamikins and Nico Semsrott; Media mogul Rupert Murdoch; Day of Restoration of Independence of Lithuania.

CELEBRATING SUNDAY: EP’s VP Marc Angel, MEPs Pernille Weiss, Javier Moreno Sánchez, Sylvie Brunet and Janina Ochojska; Fortum’s Maiju Huhtaniska; FT’s Peter Spiegel; The Bureau of Investigative Journalism’s IJ’s James Ball; DEIK’s Selma Bardakcı; Pop star and POLITICO 28 alum Stromae.

THANKS TO: Playbook’s reporter Ketrin Jochecová and our producer Grace Stranger.