For the first time in its history, we could be looking at a genuinely rightwing European Union

Ursula von der Leyen knows that her new commission will need support from the kind of hard-right parties it once swore to shun

Many observers breathed a sigh of relief earlier this year when the mainstream, pro-EU alliance – of centre-left, centre-right and liberal parties – held on to its majority in the European parliament elections. These parties, which have governed Europe for the past four decades, are to endorse Ursula von der Leyen’s new European Commission by the end of the month, with the declared goal of making the European economy greener, more competitive and more secure.

Yet behind this business as usual account of EU political power lies a different, less reassuring reality. Von der Leyen’s commission has not even taken office yet, but already the far right is punching well above its weight. And it will be emboldened by the return of Donald Trump to the White House.

The new European parliament, which has the job of endorsing the Von der Leyen 2.0 commission, is the most right wing in EU history. More than half of its members are from Von der Leyen’s centre-right European People’s party (EPP) and from far-right groups that include the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), which brings together Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni’s party with more extreme far-right parties such as France’s (Reconquête) and the Sweden Democrats. There is also the Patriots for Europe (PfE) group, co-led by Marine Le Pen and Viktor Orbán, and the even more extreme Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN), dominated by Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland.

The same is true for the other two main institutions that share executive power in Europe. More than half the members of the incoming EU commission (each proposed by one member state) and the EU council are from the right. This rightward shift in the balance of power is unprecedented and could mean the end of the centrist majority that has governed Europe since the EU’s creation. While Von der Leyen made public pledges in her first term to stick to the centre of politics, the incoming commission may be tempted to look to the right of the traditional EPP conservative bloc to pursue its political objectives.

Why is this? Coalitions in the EU parliament have historically been built issue by issue, and no commission has ever relied on a predetermined parliamentary majority during its five-year mandate. This means that votes from the far right will probably offer a way for Von der Leyen to get some of her most conservative policies over the line, while maintaining the veneer of respectability provided by mainstream EU parties’ support.

Since the incoming commission is neither politically committed nor accountable to its pro-EU mainstream alliance, the door remains open to cooperation with the far right. The combined strength of the three far-right groups (ECR, PfE and ESN) adds up to 187 of 720 seats in the parliament. This makes them a potent new ally for the EPP. In addition, the EU council, which is made up of heads of state, is dominated by 14 national governments led or supported by the right or far right, and they could force the commission to depart from its stated priorities.

For a taste of what may be to come, we only need look to earlier this year, when Von der Leyen, who was then outgoing commission president, capitulated to farmers’ protests – supported by the far right – and ditched the green deal.

Since then, a clear pattern to de-green EU policy has emerged. First came the pushback against the combustion engine ban, which requires all new cars to have zero CO2 emissions from 2035, followed by the delayed implementationof deforestation regulation, the watering down of the corporate sustainability directive and the postponement of rules to make the common agricultural policy more environmentally friendly.

The mainstream’s silent appropriation of the hard-right agenda is clear from Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party securing a vice-presidency of the EU parliament, along with several parliamentary committee chairs and potentially one EU commissioner.

It’s true that Orbán’s PfE and the even more extreme Sovereignists remain officially excluded from joining forces with mainstream EU parties under the so-called cordon sanitaire – an unwritten agreement among centrist parties to exclude fringe forces on either end of the political spectrum. However, this did not prevent the EPP voting in September with all far-right groups on a resolution recognising Edmundo González as Venezuelan president.

In fact, the firewall against the far right that operates across Europe has already been breached in the Czech Republic, Italy, the Netherlands, Slovakia and Sweden, where governing coalitions are made up of conservatives and far-right politicians.

Several EPP leaders have had extensive contact with hard-right MEPs aligned with Meloni over the past year, and Von der Leyen has embraced Italy’s offshore deportation centres. In addition, the EPP refused to sign a declaration supported by the socialists, greens, liberals, and the left to keep the far right “at bay” at every level. This rang alarm bells, which are getting louder by the day.

All the nominated commissioners were interviewed over the past two weeks at a public hearing of the European parliament to see if they are up to the job. It could reject the entire slate of candidates. However, this is unlikely to happen, as it would significantly delay the new EU Commission’s entry into office.

MEPs should not miss the opportunity to ask Von der Leyen – and her appointees – for clarity on one important question: which political majority will she rely on and respond to over the coming five years? A far-right majority of pro-Trump conservatives and formerly fringe actors, or mainstream political forces such as the socialists, liberals and greens? Her actions over the past few months only point in one direction. Welcome to the new Europe.

Alberto Alemanno is the Jean Monnet professor of EU law at HEC Paris and visiting democracy fellow and scholar at Harvard University